There is a magic in every beginning...

And tomorrow is the start of a new year… what if 2023 were to be enchanted? Those who know me know that I am rather critical. Especially with IT systems, that's my profession. But also with Germany. So, in recent years, I haven't held back my criticism of the (political) development in the best of all German-speaking countries to live in.

But… anyone can complain. What would a real new beginning look like?

In my eyes, not that difficult at all. All the foundation stones are there in Germany; they're just not being used to rebuild Germany. Instead, these stones are more often used to get in the way of people who want to get things done.

Don't be afraid. I'm sure my little article here at the start of the year won't change anything and won't be noticed by anyone who could do something with it. I'm writing this more for myself, for reassurance that I've done what I could. And as always, of course, I hope I'm completely wrong, that my thoughts aren't needed at all, and that everything is already much better than I see it. That would be really cool; I'd love to hear the laughter at my pessimism.

Energy Transition. Now. Simple.
The younger ones among you can't imagine this anymore: Germany used to be a world leader in many things. Yes, Germany was even once the world champion of exports, for years even. Until 2008. From then on were we you were passed over. Others are doing business now; Germany would rather glue itself to the street than tackle anything.

To refresh your memory a bit on the history:

• Helmut Schmidt wanted to introduce fiber optics throughout Germany as early as 1981.. Under this plan, the whole of Germany would have had a fiber optic connection at every milk jug - as the saying goes - by 2015. Germany would have been the country with the most modern telecommunications infrastructure worldwide. Helmut Kohl, with his big backside, big friends, and sluggish decisions, stopped this.
• Germany was once the global technological market leader in wind turbines, inverters, and solar modules. However, by cutting subsidies, Germany couldn't break free from manufacturing costs, leading to job losses in Germany and the technology, like so many other things, moving to China.
• Germany has practically no primary energy sources of its own, apart from dirty and relatively expensive brown and hard coal. However, even these can only generate „affordable“ electricity thanks to billions of euros in subsidies... Because these costs don't appear on the electricity bill, they don't hurt you as much. It's the same with nuclear power plants.
• Germany's industry requires a lot of energy and raw materials, including a tremendous amount of (natural) gas, for example, for fertilizer production, steel and aluminum smelting... These industries, including the automotive industries currently being phased out, and many other factors of production are were the guarantor of prosperity in Germany.

What could we infer from this? Let me play a thought experiment...

Germany must switch its renewable energy production to solar, hydro, and wind power (as well as others like biogas, geothermal, etc.) as quickly as possible. Not a little. Radically! On a slightly cloudy winter day, enough solar energy must be generated to supply Germany with electricity across the board. On a day with a light breeze, enough wind energy must be generated to supply Germany with electricity across the board. Buffer storage such as pumped-storage hydropower plants, electric cars and other batteries, compressed air caverns, etc. will then only need to buffer for 1-3 days. Every roof will get a solar power plant, every clearing a few wind turbines.

And when the sun is shining its brightest, and a strong, fresh wind is blowing through Germany? Then there will be such enormous overcapacities that steel and aluminum smelting will get the cheapest electricity prices in the whole world. And on top of that, hydrogen can be produced in abundance. Cars, buses, and trains can run on free electricity. On electricity, not hydrogen. Hydrogen, just like crude oil, much too valuable to burn in heaters or cars. A readily available energy source for electricity production, a base gas for fertilizer production, a synthesis gas for practically all higher-value gas forms... „produced for free“ if only sun and wind already provided enough security of supply on dull winter days. Stable power grids thanks to decentralized generation, which would attract niche manufacturers worldwide that depend on it. Electric cars would no longer need to be subsidized if employers and one's own home promised free refueling. Employees could “refuel“ their i3s for free at work during the day, so they could power their own homes with the battery in the evening... but that wouldn't be so important anymore thanks to their own PV system on the roof.
Putin and Qatar could shove their fossil dirt products somewhere where the sun doesn't shine, and Germany could once again become a world leader in these energy sectors and their integration.

What will happen, though? The same as back then under Helmut Kohl. Future technologies will be blocked, funds will be socialized instead of invested, Germany will continue to move further down the economic slope into nothingness, and a political world power, to project your values out into the world... Germany simply cannot afford this position anymore. Already, more energy is being spent on coming up with new words („special assets“) for old debts and old techniques („bridge technology“) from the last millennium. Distribution is increasingly considered „fair“ rather than earning. And thousands of new jobs, already destroyed once, could not be filled anyway... the associated people would rather be at the job center or gluing themselves to the street.

Too bad.
I wish Germany all the best for the future, and that my pessimism will be completely „mental diarrhea“... Last year didn't look like that. It even got worse, and it's not getting better. In Germany. Elsewhere, yes. Chin up, especially when shit is up to your neck! :) and Happy New Year!